How did Turkey shoot down the russian aircraft in 17 seconds?
Well, from Machiavellian perspective - brilliant execution. Strategically - not sure, US & NATO read that with ease, and may spit the dummy. From humanitarian perspective - it would be wise for the citizens of Turkey to figure out whether there is a domestic dimension to it asap.
[1]
- They knew where the main command and supply centre of the rebels (FSA or al-Nusra?) in their buffer zone is - likely they placed it there.
- They knew Russia would be bombing it
- They knew it is impossible to bomb it with gravity bombs without crossing a sliver of Turkush territory - that was perhaps the main reason it was there to begin with - see [1]
- They kept F-16 in the air, or scrambled it the moment they knew a Russian plane took off
- They started giving their warnings on approach, and on the first strike
- They got in the position, and used off-axis targeting of Sidewinder missiles to launch them without obvious getting on target - likely from Syrian territory that they declared their “buffer zone”
- As the Russian pilots were focising on striking the target, and Sidewinder does not require the target to be painted by a radar, they had Russian pilots unaware they were under attack until they got hit
- On success, they immediately released carefully prepared statement, which even though can be claimed to describe situation correctly, was designed to create an impression that the Russian jets were flying for 5 minutes (about 50 miles?) into Turkish territory - which would be a full-on attack on Turkey - no surprise every Turkish citizen got angry, and supportive of their President.
There is no way that you can detect an aircraft, warn it for 10 times, then reach your country’s prime minister, tell him the situation, get the order to shoot down the aircraft, divert/scramble an aircraft, aircraft catches the other aircraft, aircraft locks the other aircraft in target, shoots its missile and downs the other aircraft, in 17 seconds.
Make it 5 minutes + 17 seconds, you still can’t.
Ozgur Zeren’s answer to Turkey claims the Russian Su-24 stayed for only 17 seconds !! I don’t understand how it can issue 10 warnings in 17 seconds ?!!!!!
The only credible explanation is that, this was an incident which was planned by either Turkish Government, or some other element in Turkish state which was acting without the knowledge of Turkish government.
This is reinforced by the fact that there was obvious panic in Turkish government, who immediately invoked NATO.
But more interesting is the fact that Turkish PM attempted to take ownership of the incident by openly declaring “I gave the order to shoot down the aircraft”
It’s something absurd to do - you wouldn’t do it unless you were trying to take ownership of a situation which you had little to do.
A similar thing happened a few years ago during protests in Istanbul, in which Police was using excessive force to an extent which is unusual for even Turkish police. Leading to various deaths, many incidents and much criticism from global press as well as internal.
With every police brutality, the number of protesters increased.
At that point, some suggested that these were being done by elements in Turkish police which belong to Gulen Movement, who was trying to topple the Erdogan government since a while, but was unsuccessful in the attempts before.
Erdogan government did the same just like what they told about ordering the aircraft to be shot down - Erdogan himself, declared that he ordered the police to be this brutal to the protesters and do those acts. This makes a very bad showing, but it prevents you from appearing like you don’t have control of your own state, and also provides a measure of support from hardliner segment of your voter base for ‘strong stance’. Something is better than noting.
It was not easy to prove those allegations, however it is a basic fact that Gulen Movement has quite an extensive network of members inside Turkish police forces. In the last decade they have infiltrated army and other venues as well. Justice was also quite populated with his people, until they got into conflict with Erdogan government and got purged.
Gulen is backed by US government, and he is living in Philadelphia under FBI protection.
Fethullah Gülen’s Grand Ambition: Turkey’s Islamist Danger
These two groups - Gulen’s Clique and Erdogan’s Clique, have been openly at war for a while. Prosecutions of Gulen crowd by Erdogan’s group had been going on for a few years now, all the way from purging of Gulen-Backed Judges in important positions to confiscation of TV stations and newspapers belonging to Gulen.
According to FBI whistleblower Sibel Edmonds, Gulen and his organization is a CIA asset - which works along the Muslim Brotherhood projects CIA had been running for a few decades now. And they naturally oblige by US foreign policy.
Recently, Turkey was getting too close with Russia in realms of pil pipelines, energy deals, and was following an independent policy. Even if they conflicted in Syria, in other venues the warm up was too much for US to handle. An incident like the fighter incident not only would put Erdogan government in a VERY bad position, but it could also work towards estranging Russia from Turkey - some of which seems to have happened with energy and nuclear power plant deals coming under question in Russia.
It is not outside the realm of possibility that yet-unpurged Pro-Gulen elements in Turkish Army had arranged such a premeditated incident to happen without the knowledge of actual Turkish government. Which would explain the unrealistic explanations and the incredible 17 seconds time table.





